Projects
Sulphur Recovery Unit Investment Optimisation Under Market and Carbon Uncertainty
Value Delivered
Improved investment confidence in a high-uncertainty environment
Quantified impact of future sulphur and carbon market scenarios
Reduced lifecycle cost and value-at-risk exposure
Enhanced understanding of operational and commercial trade-offs
Selection of a more resilient design capable of delivering value across a wider range of future conditions
Stronger alignment between strategic objectives, environmental commitments and financial performance
The Challenge
An oil and gas client was planning a major investment in a new Sulphur Recovery Unit (SRU) to support increased production capacity while meeting increasingly stringent environmental requirements. The proposed design met the immediate technical need, but its long-term economic value was uncertain.
The business case was heavily influenced by factors outside the client's control, including future sulphur market prices, carbon credit values, production forecasts and evolving environmental regulations. Small changes in these assumptions could materially alter the financial attractiveness of different design options.
The client needed confidence that the selected investment would remain the right decision under a range of possible future scenarios - not just under a single set of planning assumptions.
Our Approach
Indicatura applied a Whole Life Value assessment to evaluate the proposed solution and support investment decision-making in the face of uncertainty.
Using analytical modelling, optioneering and sensitivity analysis, we tested how different design configurations performed across a range of future operating conditions.
Key variables included:
Sulphur price volatility
Future carbon credit values
Production and throughput scenarios
Reliability and availability performance
Capital and operating cost assumptions
Technology selection and process configuration
Rather than assessing a single forecast, we developed multiple future-state scenarios and quantified the impact of each on lifecycle value. This enabled stakeholders to understand where solutions were robust, where risks existed and which options offered the greatest resilience under uncertain market conditions.
The assessment provided a transparent view of the trade-offs between cost, operational performance, environmental outcomes and long-term financial returns.
The Outcome
The analysis identified that the preferred design was not the optimum solution across the full range of plausible future scenarios.
By understanding the sensitivity of value drivers such as sulphur prices and carbon credit revenues, the client was able to make a more informed investment decision and select a solution that delivered stronger performance across multiple future outcomes.
The resulting design achieved a better balance between capital expenditure, operational flexibility, environmental performance and long-term value creation.